One important thing to keep in mind. Median home sales prices were down compared to April `09 and of course to May of last year. This was expected. It was expected because median sales price is measuring the median price of the property sold within the month. With a strong influx of first-time home buyers in Hawaii, it was expected that median sales prices would drop, because FTHB purchase at the lower end of the price range.

This is another reason it is silly to compare May of 2009 to May of 2008. They are apples and oranges. The characteristics of the properties sold in May of 2009 are completely different from the properties sold in May of 2008. Comparing the two just makes no sense. And further, to imply that this indicates all prices are falling equally makes no sense. Even so, the media will compare and scream about how prices (and sales) are plunging, falling, slipping, sinking, diving, dropping, declining, dipping, tumbling, and of course, plummeting.

Here is a quick summary for May:

- Sales up strongly - again: Single Family Homes at 225; Condos at 263 were both up compared to 189 and 257 in April of 2009, however lower than May of 2008’s SFH of 252 and Condo of 382. Look for the media to scream, “sales still falling!” However they aren’t falling. So far this year, sales have increased every month with May `09 SFH sales almost double what they were in January `09. This upward trend is clear.

- Median prices: SFH at $550,000 and Condos at $305,000 were below April of 09, and below May 2008 of SFH $649,000 and Condo at $337,500. As discussed above, comparing these numbers to last year is useless. Be prepared for the headlines – SFH prices fall almost $100,000! It still looks like January 2009 SFH was the bottom at $539,500.

- Days On Market are lower again. SFH at 49 and Condos at 52 are in the range they were for 2006, 2007 and 2008. Don’t look for this to be featured in the media however.

- Oahu Homes Inventory is down big time! This is the big news from the May stats. SFH at 1,739 units, Condos at 2,438. Both if these are lower than May of 2008, and consistent with numbers from 2007 – even back to 2006. The lower the inventory numbers, the more upward price pressure that is created. Sellers become less flexible as they face less competition.

- Months of remaining inventory dropped again for the third straight month to 9.2 for SFH and 9.5 for Condos. And Months Of Remaining Inventory near 10 months indicates stable prices. The lower the MORI moves below 10 months, the more the upward pressure on prices.

The other big news is that interest rates are beginning to sneak up. What this means is that the unique circumstances that made this market so perfect for buyers are beginning to unravel. Inventory is dropping and rates are creeping up. It is still great for buyers. But it will get less great over time.

Post from: Hawaii Real Estate Reporter

May 2009 Hawaii Real Estate Stats: Sales Up Again, Inventory Down

February 2009 Housing Stats From HBR

Here is a brief summary of the attached pdf from HBR:

          SALES: The number of Single Family Home sales was up over January’s 122 by just a bit at 129, and still way below last year’s 163.  Condo sales of 160 were just 1 over the 159 of January and about ½ of last years 321.

          PRICES: Single Family Home prices of $555,000 were up from January’s $539,500, and below last years $599,000.  Condos were at $297,000, down slightly from January’s $305,000 and below last years $335,000.  The media will be howling at full voice.  Time will tell, however, and we may have seen our bottoms.  The September 2008 condo median of $296,000 and January `09 SFH of $539,000 may be the bottoms.  We will know in a few months.

          DOM: Days on Market were down for SFH to 69 in February from 71 in January 09 and above last years 59.  Condos were up from January’s 59 to 70 in February 09 and above February 08’s 50 days. 

          INVENTORY: Inventories were about the same, with SFH at 1,928, up from January’s 1,903 and almost identical to February 2008’s number of 1,924.  Condos were up slightly to 2,507 from January’s 2,494 and above February 2008’s 2,476.  Again, inventories are remaining relatively flat.

          MORI: And now for the weird one, month’s of remaining inventory. SFH was at 15.8, up from January’s 9.8 and February 2008’s 8.4.  Condos were also 15.8, up from 10.3 in January and 7.6 in February of 2008.  These numbers don’t make much sense and will probably settle down next month.  These big MORI numbers just appear from time to time.

Let’s see what kind of headlines the Advertiser and the Bulletin will put out tommorow, it should be interesting.

Post from: Hawaii Real Estate Reporter

A Closer Look at January 2009 Hawaii Housing Stats from HBR

The following video is Bill Chee’s section. His is the most fun to watch, not as many graphs, but more jokes. Lots of easy to digest info in this segment.
Bill’s topic: How’s the Market?

This one part of a series of video transcripts, the other parts are linked here:
Part 1 – Paul Brubaker
Part 2 – Dr. Mike Sklarz
Part 3 – Bill Chee
Part 4 – Q and A with Howard Dicus Moderating
Please leave your comments below..

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State of Hawaii Real Estate Discussion Video Part 3 of 4: October 2008

The following video is Paul Brubaker’s section, it is approx 15 minutes long, there is quite a bit of statistical analysis about our markets in this video. 

Topic: Hawaii, U.S., and global economic factors that affect the Hawaii residential real estate market – Past, current and  future conditions.

Paul Brubaker Discusses Hawaii Real Estate
This one part of a series of video transcripts, the other parts are linked here:
Part 1 – Paul Brubaker
Part 2 – Dr. Mike Sklarz
Part 3 – Bill Chee
Part 4 – Q and A with Howard Dicus Moderating

Post from: Hawaii Real Estate Reporter

State of Hawaii Real Estate Discussion Video Part 1 of 4: October 2008

According to the article, analysts claim that this slump will not end until inventory (amount of homes for sale) declines.  Unfortunately for many mainlanders, foreclosures are pushing more homes onto already flooded markets, keeping inventories high and extending the market’s recovery time.

If this is a good synopsis of our Real Estate problems, Hawaii has two reasons to be optimistic:

First, Hawaii’s conservative construction practices have spared us the inventory disasters that trounced Mainland cities like Las Vegas, where overdevelopment of new homes flooded the market, driving prices down.  We didn’t overdevelop to that extent, so our inventory problem is not nearly as bad.

Second, conservative lending practices in Hawaii has spared us a dramatic foreclosure crisis.  Hawaii lenders were more careful with “exotic” subprime mortgages than many of their mainland counterparts.  The result- Only 1 out of 3676 homes in Hawaii are in foreclosure while 1 out of 501 US homes are in foreclosure.  We aren’t experiencing a devistating surge in foreclosures that threatens to flood the market with inventory.

Post from: Hawaii Real Estate Reporter

NAR Reports Dropping National Sales Figures. What does this mean to the Hawaii Market?

Note: you can download our latest real estate report here
KEY OBSERVATIONS
Despite sales numbers being down again this month, Oahu median prices saw little change in the three-month period between March and May 2008 compared to the same period last year for both single-family homes and condominiums. Median prices for single-family homes saw a slight dip of -1.5%
to $640,000. Condominiums have remained flat at $325,000. Our Oahu Real Estate Report looks at both monthly numbers as well as a rolling
3-month period as it provides better indicators of trends that are happening in the market.
There have been moderate changes in median prices in areas across Oahu. However, there are a few areas that have seen continual growth this year
including the single-family areas of Manoa and Pearl City-Aiea. In the condominium market the Waikiki and Kapiolani-University areas have also seen
steady price appreciation this year. We encourage you to research neighborhoods that you are interested in. In addition to the 30 areas highlighted on
the report, Prudential Locations tracks real estate data for over 200 unique neighborhoods across Oahu, many of which have their own unique trends.
For more information on a specific neighborhood, please contact your Prudential Locations agent.

Click Oahu Real Estate Sales Chart To See Full Size:

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Oahu Real Estate Report May 2008

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Wealth Building in Hawaii

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March 2008 Discussion of Hawaii Real Estate Market