Hawaii Real Estate Reporter

Update: You can get the most recent Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends Report Here, from Prudential Locations.

The headline you won’t see elsewhere: “Hawaii Condo prices increase over November 2007!”

The Honolulu Board of Realtors just released the November real estate statistics and here is the simple summary – number of sales down, prices flat. The mainstream media will crow about how terrible things are, but look a little closer and they aren’t that bad. Here we go:

- Number of Sales down for both Single Family Homes and Condos in Hawaii. No surprise here. SFH at 170, down from 243 in October and 245 in November of 2007. Condo sales at 201, down from 316 in October and 379 in November of 2007. This large drop in sales was magnified by the seasonal drop in sales this time of year.

- Prices for Hawaii Real Estate are flat, flat, flat. SFH median price was $594,500, down from $625,000 in October and $610,000 in November of 2007. Where does “flat come from?” Look at the last three SFH years.
January of 2006 SFH = $615,000;
November of 2006 = $610,000.
January of 2007, SFH = $600,000;
November of 2007 = $610,000.
January of 2008, SFH = $600,000;
November of 2008 = $594,500.
That is about as flat as you can get over a three-year period.

- Condo Median Price was $316,200, down from $325,000 in October and “UP” from $315,000 in November of 2007. Think we will see that headline anywhere?

- Days on Market (DOM) up for SFH and Condos: SFH DOM were 57 in November, up from 52 in October 2008 and 53 in November of 2007. Condo DOM at 68, up from 53 in October 2008, and up from 42 in November of 2007. This is the highest DOM for condos for the year, but just about average for SFH for the year.

- Inventory down for both SFH and Condos. SFH inventory of 2,096 was down from 2,107 in October of 2007, and up from 1,952 in November 2007. Condo inventory of 2,655 was down from 2,663 in October 2008 and up from 2,442 in November of 2007. Both of these numbers are consistent within the year.

- Months of Remaining Inventory – down for both SFH and Condos: SFH MORI of 8.6 is down from 9.8 in October of 2008 and up from 7.4 in November of 2007. Condo MORI of 8.4 is down from October 2008 and up from 5.8 in November of 2007. We are still in a healthy range for Months Of Remaining Inventory. Remember, in the 6 – 10 month-range, prices remain flat. And that is what we are seeing.

Overall, there is nothing in these stats that should worry buyers or sellers. For people waiting for prices to fall, they have waited 3 years by now and prices are still almost identical for SFH and are up slightly for condos. So – “why wait?” is the question. Inventories are stable, so there are still many choices for buyers. So, how is Ewa Plain doing? Down 8.9%. Keep in mind that a 1% increase in interest rate would more than wipe out that reduction in price. It still doesn’t make sense to wait with interest rates low and the future of low interest in doubt.