It’s time for some good old media hysteria. As mentioned in the Honolulu Star Bulletin on Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Hawaii’s foreclosure rate tripled in April, with a 218 percent increase over the year-earlier period.
The state climbed to 36th in a national foreclosure ranking last month, with 210 foreclosures filed, or one for every 2,381 households,
My god, foreclosures up 218%! It’s time to build a bomb shelter and store food. In fact, curl into a ball right now and play dead, just in case there are any bears in the area.
The article says that Hawaii is experiencing a “relatively small number” of foreclosures. This is a tremendous understatement: 1 out of 519 US homes are in foreclosure, only 1 out of 2381 Hawaii homes are in foreclosure.
We’re in good shape with regard to foreclosures. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure this out. (Although a research background in non-jet propulsion can help in any situation)
The outlook on Oahu is even better than the outlook for the state as a whole: UH’s Economist says that he thinks that the 218% increase mostly represents neighbor-island foreclosures. Among those, he says, many are probably mainland second-home buyers.
Don’t let these headlines scare you. We’re OK.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Hey they gotta sell newspapers right?
June 6th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
It seems like the media really gets a kick out of using big percentages to scare people in regards to foreclosures. There were, comparatively, very few foreclosures to begin with in the islands in ‘07–less than 100 in April–and anyone who went to 6th grade math class knows that if you have a small denominator (the April ‘07 foreclosure count) to begin with, any increases in the numerator will make for big percentage changes.
If the Advertiser is so engrossed with big, scary percentages, why don’t they use one that frames the situation objectively. If 1 out of 519 US homes are in foreclosure, and only 1 out of 2381 Hawaii homes are in foreclosure, that means Hawaii has 458% less foreclosures than the national average.
Oh… wait… so you mean the Hawaii real estate market has 4 and 1/2 times LESS foreclosures than the national average….???
How the hell are we going to sell any newspapers with that kinda news…???
July 17th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
When is the best time to buy? When you can.