Hawaii Single family Home and Condo Price Trends 2009

While the number of home sales steadily increased through 2009, the year still ended with single-family home sales down slightly, 1.7% compared to 2008. Condominium sales were down further, 9.5%.

Median price for both single-family and condominiums bottomed out during the first half of 2009 but closed the year at $580,000 for single-family homes and $320,000 for condominiums, down 7.2% and 6.2% respectively from 2008.
Click to Download the Oahu Real Estate Report – 2009 Year End

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Oahu Home Sales and Prices – Year End Update for 2009

Number of Sales.
Sales for SFH dropped for the first time this year from 265 in July to 247 in August. However, Condo sales jumped again, from 327 in July to 351 in August. This is the highest number of Condo sales this year, and higher than August 2008.

Median prices down.
This has been expected for the last few months. Remember, median prices don’t mean very much. They are measuring what has been purchased, so they are more about choice than about price changes. With all of the FTHB, I am surprised median prices stay as high as they do. Expect the media to play these up however.

Days on Market.
Days on market are low again, with Condos dropping to 51 from 56 in July. SFH are at 48, just two more than July’s 46. These are only slightly higher than last year.

Inventory – down again.
Now here is where the news really is. Inventories for both SFH and Condos are way down. SFH at #1,624 are down from July’s 1,653, and well below August 2008’s #2,119. Condos at #2,140 are down from July’s 2,279, and far below August 2008’s 2,743. We haven’t seen inventories this low since January of 2006. This is the big news!

Months of Remaining Inventory.
MORI are way down, again. SFH MORI were 6.1 down from July’s 6.5 and well below August 2008’s 8.4. Condo MORI at 6.5 was far below July’s 7.8; and below August 2008’s 7.5. Keep in mind that MORI of 6.0 is the dividing line between buyers and sellers markets. The direction is clear. If this trend holds, we are headed toward a seller’s market.

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August 2009 Hawaii Housing Stats – Looking Good!

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July 2009 Video Discussion: Has Real Estate Hit The bottom Yet?

Realty Trac’s accuracy has been called into question numerous times due to the way they count foreclosures, often double counting properties and including commercial filings. Once again, don’t beleive the hype, they want to sell subscriptions to thier service above all. By making the numbers look high, they think more people will pay to see their foreclosures list.

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Hawaii Ranked 15th for Highest Number of Foreclosure Filings

The reason for the increase in rates has been linked to the great deal of debt that the United States government has been issuing in the form of treasuries or bonds. Recently the supply of treasury bills has begun to increase with little response from buyers. This has led to a direct hit on mortgage rates, pushing them well above the 5% mark.

The Fed will attempt to counteract the rise in mortgage rates by increasing treasury prices and lowering yields. They will do so by purchasing more longer-term treasury securities over the next six months.

The message: 5% rates are still low, but who knows how long they will remain that low? Take advantage now, before they go back up.

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Mortgage rates have risen above 5%, Probably Won’t Go That Low Again

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$8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Explained in Video – Do You Qualify?

While there has been an overall consensus from local economists and foreclosure attorneys that foreclosures among the Hawaiian Islands are worsening, it may not be to the extent at which the research company RealtyTrac has been reporting. In recent weeks, concerns have been rising as to the methods by which the California based research company is arriving at their foreclosure figures.

RealtyTrac collects data from an estimated 90% of the United States population, reaching almost 2,200 counties nationwide. However the problem with the data that is being reported on foreclosures is that it may be counted up to three times in separate months. Foreclosures can be counted in three stages, first as a default loan, then as a trustee sales notice and finally as a real-estate-owned transaction. By incorporating all three levels into their Foreclosure tally, RealtyTrac leaves the possibility of including homes which were previously included in the foreclosure rankings at a different level, thus skewing the reported number of foreclosures on the Hawaiian Islands.

While RealtyTrac runs the chance of misreporting state foreclosure ratings, there is no defined way for correctly counting the number of foreclosures within a particular county or state. This makes RealtyTrac’s findings the most viable data for many individuals and organizations to reference, even though it’s finding are “debatable”.

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RealtyTrac Claims Foreclosures Have Risen 217%. Debatable.

One important thing to keep in mind. Median home sales prices were down compared to April `09 and of course to May of last year. This was expected. It was expected because median sales price is measuring the median price of the property sold within the month. With a strong influx of first-time home buyers in Hawaii, it was expected that median sales prices would drop, because FTHB purchase at the lower end of the price range.

This is another reason it is silly to compare May of 2009 to May of 2008. They are apples and oranges. The characteristics of the properties sold in May of 2009 are completely different from the properties sold in May of 2008. Comparing the two just makes no sense. And further, to imply that this indicates all prices are falling equally makes no sense. Even so, the media will compare and scream about how prices (and sales) are plunging, falling, slipping, sinking, diving, dropping, declining, dipping, tumbling, and of course, plummeting.

Here is a quick summary for May:

- Sales up strongly - again: Single Family Homes at 225; Condos at 263 were both up compared to 189 and 257 in April of 2009, however lower than May of 2008’s SFH of 252 and Condo of 382. Look for the media to scream, “sales still falling!” However they aren’t falling. So far this year, sales have increased every month with May `09 SFH sales almost double what they were in January `09. This upward trend is clear.

- Median prices: SFH at $550,000 and Condos at $305,000 were below April of 09, and below May 2008 of SFH $649,000 and Condo at $337,500. As discussed above, comparing these numbers to last year is useless. Be prepared for the headlines – SFH prices fall almost $100,000! It still looks like January 2009 SFH was the bottom at $539,500.

- Days On Market are lower again. SFH at 49 and Condos at 52 are in the range they were for 2006, 2007 and 2008. Don’t look for this to be featured in the media however.

- Oahu Homes Inventory is down big time! This is the big news from the May stats. SFH at 1,739 units, Condos at 2,438. Both if these are lower than May of 2008, and consistent with numbers from 2007 – even back to 2006. The lower the inventory numbers, the more upward price pressure that is created. Sellers become less flexible as they face less competition.

- Months of remaining inventory dropped again for the third straight month to 9.2 for SFH and 9.5 for Condos. And Months Of Remaining Inventory near 10 months indicates stable prices. The lower the MORI moves below 10 months, the more the upward pressure on prices.

The other big news is that interest rates are beginning to sneak up. What this means is that the unique circumstances that made this market so perfect for buyers are beginning to unravel. Inventory is dropping and rates are creeping up. It is still great for buyers. But it will get less great over time.

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May 2009 Hawaii Real Estate Stats: Sales Up Again, Inventory Down

These foreclosure properties are REO’s and lender sales, NOT action block foreclosures. Foreclosures that are REO (Real Estate Owned) and lender sales are less complicated to make offers on than auction block foreclosures, but there are still some considerations to buying these types of properties so you should consult an experienced agent of you are considering one of these. You can save the search also if you would like to be notified when new properties of this type come on the market. There is a FAQ regarding both of these types of listings on the website. Check it out!

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New! Hawaii Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES ON OAHU

OAHU CONDOMINIUMS

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1st Quarter 2009 Hawaii Real Estate Trends